by Oliver von Bretten 
Canada’s real estate market entered 2025 with strong momentum, only to be rattled by mounting trade friction with the U.S., including new tariffs and heightened economic unease. These disruptions led to a general slowdown in residential activity. Yet, the country’s upper-tier housing market revealed pockets of surprising strength. While the broader landscape braces for continued volatility this spring, several luxury segments are proving more resilient—emerging as standout performers in an otherwise cautious climate.
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Montreal
Montreal set itself apart in early 2025 with steady sales activity, even as other cities felt the pinch. A dip in interest rates helped drive renewed buyer engagement, particularly given the city’s relatively accessible pricing. This affordability gave buyers room to step into the luxury market. Between January and March, sales over $1 million rose 11% year-over-year, despite a brief lull mid-quarter. High-end sales above $4 million remained level with Q1 2024, closing out the quarter with eight transactions. Overall, the market favored sellers during this period.
Toronto
The GTA’s top-end housing segment continued to attract ultra-wealthy buyers despite broader market challenges. While sales of homes priced over $1 million and $4 million dropped 29% and 15% respectively from the previous year, the $10 million+ category saw growth. Five MLS-listed properties surpassed this benchmark in Q1 2025—up from zero during the same timeframe last year. Off-market activity was also robust, highlighting the purchasing power and flexibility of the region’s elite buyers in the face of economic pressure.
Calgary
Building on strong population growth in 2024, Calgary maintained positive momentum in 2025. Alberta welcomed nearly 28,500 new residents in Q1—the highest interprovincial increase in Canada. This influx supported the city’s luxury housing market, where sales over $1 million rose modestly by 2% year-over-year. One property exceeded the $4 million mark, compared to two the year before. While not record-breaking, the numbers suggest Calgary remains on stable ground, with continued interest in high-end real estate.
Vancouver
Vancouver’s luxury market began the year with encouraging signs but quickly slowed amid economic uncertainty and faltering consumer confidence. The result was an accumulation of listings and a shift to buyer-friendly conditions. Year-over-year, sales of homes priced over $1 million fell 30%, while transactions above $4 million dropped 48%. No $10 million+ sales were recorded on MLS, mirroring Q1 2024. Among major Canadian cities, Vancouver saw the most significant declines in the luxury segment during the first quarter of 2025.
*Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.
